Budget Watch 2025: Carney’s First Big Test
Matthew Dubé
What matters most these days in Canadian politics? There’s a lot to choose from, but the federal budget being tabled on November 4 is a strong contender. For all the daily theatre of Question Period, headlines that come and go, or much talked about visits to the Oval Office, it’s the budget that quietly shapes the country’s direction. It shows what government has prioritized, how it plans to deliver on promises, and where pressure points may emerge in the months ahead.
This budget matters more than most. For Prime Minister Mark Carney and his team, it’s the first true test of their governing style. Over the summer, they announced major projects and new priorities. Now, those words need to be backed by dollars. The budget is where we get to evaluate the ‘walk’ versus the ‘talk.’
Trade tensions and economic stakes
For industries hit by tariffs and communities wondering whether federal investments will reach them, the budget will reveal more than press releases ever could. A Reuters piece last month highlighted the stakes, noting that sectors like steel, aluminum, lumber, and automotive remain in the crosshairs of U.S. trade policy. These industries employ tens of thousands of Canadians and anchor entire regional economies. If Ottawa lays out clear measures to protect and strengthen them, it will signal confidence in Canada’s ability to chart its own course.
Showing resilience across borders
Recent coverage of Prime Minister Carney’s visit to Washington on October 7th reinforces the delicate balancing act the government must undertake to relieve trade tensions. This makes the budget more than a domestic exercise. It becomes a chance for Ottawa to show resilience and demonstrate that Canada can withstand external pressure while supporting its citizens and industries. The choices in this budget will reveal whether the government is prepared to reinforce that resilience in practical terms.
Balancing restraint, ambition, and federal–provincial relations
Inside government, ministers have been tasked with finding savings. That could mean leaner service delivery, use of technologies such as AI to find efficiencies, or delays or cuts to government programs. At the same time, there’s pressure to invest in large-scale infrastructure projects promised earlier this year. The goal is to drive growth and send a signal to markets that Canada is open for business.
Right now, the relationship between Ottawa and the provinces is generally cooperative and positive. Premiers and the Prime Minister have found common ground, motivated in part by external pressures and shared economic priorities. That cooperation creates an unusual window of opportunity: the budget can reinforce that goodwill and show that both levels of government can work together.
But if the numbers fall short in certain regions or favour some priorities over others, it could strain those ties. Premiers will be watching closely, especially on healthcare funding, regional economic initiatives, and infrastructure projects. Striking the right balance between fiscal discipline, ambitious investments, and equitable support across provinces will test the sustainability of this collaborative environment.
Why we should pay attention
Budget decisions affect the industries that employ Canadians, the services on which families rely, and the confidence investors have in our economy. But there’s more: the way Ottawa works with provincial leaders determines how these resources reach people and businesses. The current cooperative climate makes this a particularly important moment. The budget will either reinforce that collaboration or introduce new tensions. The outcomes can shape policy for many Canadian businesses, impact community budgets, and touch the lives of our citizens in countless ways.
Whether you are a business leader, a worker, or someone trying to make sense of where the country is headed, the budget is your clearest window into the government’s plan. It reflects priorities, reveals strategies, and signals how Canada plans to weather both domestic and international pressures.
We look forward to sharing our analysis of the budget once it is revealed in November.